Increase in end-systolic volume after exercise independently predicts mortality in patients with coronary heart disease: data from the Heart and Soul Study.

AIMS The predictive value of changes in global left ventricular (LV) size after exercise has not been studied. Left ventricular end-systolic volume (ESV) is a relatively load-independent echocardiographic marker of contractility that is easily measured. We investigated the role of the change in ESV at rest and after peak exercise on mortality among patients with stable coronary heart disease (CHD). METHODS AND RESULTS We performed exercise treadmill testing with stress echocardiography in 934 ambulatory subjects with CHD. End-systolic volume was measured immediately before and after exercise using 2D echocardiography. We defined ESV reversal as an increase in ESV after exercise, and we examined the association of ESV reversal with all-cause mortality during a median follow-up of 3.92 years. Of the 934 participants, 199 (21%) had ESV reversal. At the end of follow-up, mortality was higher among participants with ESV reversal than those without (26 vs. 11%; P < 0.001). After adjustment for clinical covariates, ESV reversal remained predictive of all-cause mortality (HR 2.0; 95% CI 1.4-2.9; P = 0.001). The association of ESV reversal with mortality also persisted after adjustment for exercise-induced wall-motion abnormalities (HR 1.7; 95% CI 1.1-2.3, P = 0.006). To determine if the effect of ESV reversal was independent from other echocardiographic measurements, we created a separate model adjusting for resting LV ejection fraction, ESV, end-diastolic volume, and LV mass. End-systolic volume reversal was the only significant predictor of mortality in this model (HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.4-3.0, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION End-systolic volume reversal is a novel parameter that independently predicts mortality in patients with CHD undergoing exercise treadmill echocardiography, even after adjustment for a wide range of clinical, echocardiographic, and treadmill exercise variables. Because measurement of ESV is simple, reproducible, and requires no additional imaging views, identification of ESV reversal during exercise echocardiography can provide useful complementary information for risk stratification.